Sunrise from the International Space Station (Source)

Becoming less wrong about the world with data

Strange and wonderful things happen when you put down the newspaper, turn off the tv, and decide to look at actual statistics about the world instead of relying on what you’ve been told. The ground begins to shift beneath your feet as you realize the worldview which the news has been feeding you — that the world is on a downward slide — is, based on almost every single factual measure, in direct opposition to reality. Once we look at the data on topics such as wealth, health, human rights, and environmental protection, we are left with no option but to conclude the world has been on an upward trajectory for most of recorded history, we live in the best time ever for human civilization, and the improvement shows no signs of stopping.

Over the past five years, as I’ve slowly weaned myself from a debilitating news addiction, I’ve experienced what can only be described as an update to the worldview-generating software in my brain. Through tens of thousands of book pages, millions of data points, and countless charts, my view of the world as a dark, dangerous place and humanity as an evil force has reversed. Based on the data, the story of the world has flipped: the history of humanity is not one of decline, but a gradual ascent continuing to today.

I did not start out with the aim of becoming an optimist, but a long-term positive outlook is the inevitable conclusion from a fact-based examination of the world.

As a new year begins, and now that I’ve assimilated enough independent sources of data to be confident reality is really better than we think, I’m starting The Reality Project, a data-driven endeavor to present the world as it is through a series of weekly articles. The stated goal is to become less wrong about the world through data, disposing of our distorted worldviews. If, along the way, the data happen to give you a more optimistic view of humanity, then consider it as a beneficial side effect.

The first article in The Reality Project, “The Disappearing Poor” is here. You can find all the published articles in The Reality Project here.

Basics of The Reality Project

Each week, I’ll be writing about statistics concerning different aspects of our world, selected based on the views where I was initially most wrong. These will cover topics from the environment to democracy to nuclear weapons — if humans are involved and there is reliable data, it falls in this purview although the focus will generally be on the big picture instead of daily minutiae. The articles will be short and informative, and each piece of data must be confirmed by independent sources to make it into The Reality Project.

Upfront, I’d like to make clear I make no claims to have a monopoly on the truth. I’m aware that data is subject to the biases of those collecting and reporting it. However, just the possibility we may be proved wrong is not a reason to prevent us from trying to get at the truth. Science, and by extension humanity, advances through a process of gathering data, questioning theories, and discarding ideas when they are no longer supported by data. My beliefs are never set in stone, and when the evidence changes, or when I find data contradicting my existing ideas, it will not be suppressed but reported!

This project has allegiance to a single idea: we should rely on evidence — data — and not opinions. What distinguishes The Reality Project from the news is a willingness to overturn worldviews when they are not in line with reality.

Why this Matters

Being less wrong about the world has not just been a vanity project. My fact-based worldview has altered the way I live for the better and I believe an accurate conception of the world is vital for society. Prior to this worldview software upgrade, I never volunteered or contributed to charitable causes based on simple reasoning: the world is a terrible place, you have to look out for yourself, and there will always be poor/sick/oppressed/hungry people so there’s no use trying to make a difference.

The single most important effect of learning the real state of the world is seeing that worldwide efforts in areas such as poverty reduction, human rights expansion, and disease eradication have been overwhelming successes. These programs make a difference and prove that people acting together can reduce the suffering of conscious beings on a global scale.

The facts show that trying to improve your own neighborhood or even the entire world is not futile.

This realization flipped a switch in my brain: it is indefensible to not give time or money to making the world better. The United Nations, nonprofits, and yes, even individual volunteers, contribute to the flourishing of humans. Every bit of work you do may seem inconsequential, but it adds up until we live in a world where since 1990 over 1 billion people have escaped extreme poverty and the number of children who have received vaccines is over 85%.

In short, much as ing the news is a civic duty, but it wasn’t until I started reading the facts that I began contributing in a meaningful way. Those who incorrectly assume the world is getting worse are probably not among the many people actually making it better.

Resources for Being Less Wrong

If we want to adopt a fact-based worldview then we need some facts. Fortunately, for those looking to be less wrong about the world, there are more resources for data (often free) than ever before. If you want to replace a news habit (evidence suggests we don’t get rid of bad habits but replace them with positive ones) or just check the facts, then start with these:

1. Our World in Data: visualizations, raw data, in-depth analysis — you’ll find it all at this comprehensive resource compiling data from many sources.
2. Gapminder.org: The Gapminder Foundation is an organization dedicated to improving the world by helping society adopt a fact-based worldview. At the least, take the Gapminder Test to assess your world knowledge.
3. Worldbank open data: if you like your data directly from the source, this is the place to get it. Explore the data either through charts online or by downloading the data.
4. and a good starting point for a fact-based worldview.
5. The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley: an explanation of what drives human progress and prosperity increases.
6. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence has Declinedby Steven Pinker (good overview) and Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress by Steven Pinker (nice podcast here): these are magnificent works that will fundamentally alter how you view the world. Together, they consist of 1000+ pages of rigorously researched statistics, graphs, and stories, showing not just why we live in the most peaceful time in human history, but in the best time for human civilization.

These are just a handful of the sites and books which present data about the world as it really is. There will be additional resources provided over the course of the project and I’m always looking for more recommendations.

Conclusions

The Reality Project will be a once-a-week series of articles dedicated to presenting a fact-based picture of the world with an aim to become less wrong about the world with data. Every week we will be exploring a different topic covering the entire range of human activities. This project was borne out of my “enlightenment” that began once I started to base my worldview on facts rather than what I was told through the news. Although the intention is not to make you more optimistic, that may be an inevitable side effect of becoming less wrong about the world.

There have been many individuals and institutions that have guided me along my journey and will be with us throughout The Reality Project. Prominent among them is the incredible late Hans Rosling who made it his goal to a data-centered worldview](https://www.gapminder.org/ignorance/?), and by extension, work to ensure that things continue to get better. His work is carried on by his wife and the Gapminder Foundation. I’d like to leave you with a signature video from him, one of many inspirations I’ve had on my path out of the darkness.

How Not to be Ignorant about the World

As always, I welcome feedback, constructive criticism, and, actively encourage dissension throughout the Reality Project. I ask only that rebuttals are rooted in data. I can be reached on Twitter @koehrsen_will.